A dolarização e a análise das variáveis macroeconômicas : o caso de Equador e El Salvador : uma análise contrafactual

Abstract

The purpose of the counterfactual analysis developed in this dissertation is to analyze the impact of dollarization on the performance of macroeconomic variables in dollarized countries. Within them, unemployment, inflation and growth rates. The countries chosen to analyze the impact of dollarization on the variables were Ecuador and El Salvador. The donor group is limited to Latin American countries as they share general social and economic characteristics with the countries under study. The software used to estimate the dollarization impact, through the Synth no R. package. The pre-treatment period for El Salvador extends from 1981 to 2001 and the post-treatment period, from 2001 to 2017; for Ecuador, the pre-treatment period extends from 1981 to 2000 and the post-treatment period, from 2000 to 2017. We limit the post-treatment period to 2017 due to the availability of data. The year in which the treatment occurs is the date of dollarization.