Os efeitos do Reintegra sobre o emprego : estudo por meio da análise de quebra estrutural

Abstract

In the first decades of the 2000s, the Brazilian government created a series of economic measures in search of higher growth rates. Brazilian industrial competitiveness faced serious problems of restoration in the external market. The industrial sector received special attention, through tax incentive policies, so the Special Regime for the Reintegration of Tax Values for Exporting Companies - REINTEGRA was created in mid-2011. In this context, this study seeks to answer the following question: was there a structural break in the employment trajectory in industrial sectors released by REINTEGRA? To assess this relationship, regression models were estimated considering the Chow test, in which the dependent variables were admissions and dismissals in industrial sectors able to receive the benefit and exports in two periods, with and without REINTEGRA, in order to determine whether there was influence of this tax exemption regime. The first period is characterized by the ex ante (before the implementation of the regime, 2010/2011, while the second period shows the evolution of the implementation of this regime, considering the period of 2012/2013. The estimates obtained suggest that this tax relief regime had a positive effect on employability in the industrial sectors.