Caracterização temporal e espacial da raiva em animais de produção no estado de Mato Grosso entre 2009 e 2018

Abstract

Rabies is an important disease causing mortality in farm animals, which is relevant for generating economic losses and for its zoonotic potential. The National Herbivorous Rabies Control Program regulates actions aimed at controlling the disease in rural areas and in Mato Grosso the Agricultural Defense Institute of the State of Mato Grosso is responsible for carrying them out. Since Mato Grosso has the largest cattle herd in Brazil, the objective of this study was to characterize temporal and spatial rabies outbreaks in the rural cycle between 2009 and 2018. Data extracted from the Disease Investigation Forms – Initial (FORM IN) and laboratory results were used. Cattle and horses were the most affected, representing 88.96% and 10.19% of the cases and presenting the highest positivity rate, with 35.79% and 33.71%, respectively. The owners made 68.42% of the notifications, and the direct immunofluorescence test diagnosed 89.30% of the cases. Outbreaks were registered in 94 of the 141 municipalities of the state, which have moved over the years and the clusters were concentrated mainly in the west of the state, in the Amazon biome and in the central south and east region, in the Cerrado biome. In all biennial, there was a pattern of clustering of outbreaks, verified by the Kernel estimator, functions F and K. When evaluating the time series, analyzed by the ARIMA (1,1,1) model, a decreasing tendency without significant seasonality was found, although the number of outbreaks increased between May and July. The forecast estimate for the 12 months following the study is to register three outbreaks per month, which can vary from zero to 9. It was observed that the outbreaks are decreasing over the years, as a result of the disease cycle, or by actions control system. If the outbreaks increase again, it is expected that it will not occur in the same proportions presented in previous years. The disease records occurred mainly in the west, east and south center of the state, showing an aggregate dependence of the outbreaks.