Precipitação provável e índice de seca da região médio-norte de Mato Grosso

Abstract

The mid-north region is of great importance for the economic development of the state of Mato Grosso and covers 9.76 million hectares, of which 41.4% is occupied by productive areas (livestock, agricultural and forestry). Considering the importance of agriculture to the region there is a need to evaluate climatological issues that directly affect agribusiness, mainly by fluctuations in grain production ("crop failure") due to periods with extreme precipitation. In this context, the objective of this work will be to determine the probable monthly, quarterly and annual precipitation for the mid-north region of Mato Grosso as well as to evaluate its spatial and temporal variability. In addition, it is intended to study the precipitation anomaly through

8 the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in order to obtain a method of monitoring the conditions of drought and humidity in the region for agricultural planning and water resources management. In view of this, it was contacted through the spatial distribution of probable rainfall at a significance level of 75% that the largest accumulated volumes occur in the north of the region, mainly in the municipality of Tabaporã, and the lowest accumulated volumes occur in the southeast of the area, mainly in Nova Ubiratã. Furthermore, it was found that the SPI methodology is effective for characterizing and monitoring drought and humidity in the region, and the spatial distribution of these values allowed the identification of locations in the Mid-North region with a critical situation in relation to drought or humidity, the which can assist in directing water resources planning and management actions.