Simulação de cenários futuros de ilhas de calor e morfologia urbana como instrumento no planejamento de cidades

Abstract

Due to the importance of considering climate change in urban centers, this research aimed to simulate future scenarios of urban heat islands and the effect of likely changes in urban morphology on microscale heating. Therefore, it was necessary to analyze the thermohygrometric data in relation to the local climate zones (LCZs) between 2011 and 2019 for further simulation of future scenarios for 2021. The results showed, between 2011 and 2020, that the LCZ2 and LCZ 4 typologies with canyon characteristics urban are those that are favoring the intensification of the urban heat island (in the central region of the city and in the surrounding areas) more significantly in the hot-dry period, on the other hand, the regions that are characterized as LCZA (dense arboreal vegetation) configure oases for expressing the mildest temperatures in all seasons in the years of study. In the simulation of future scenarios of heat islands, LSMT-type artificial neural networks were used to estimate the air temperature of each season of the year for 2021 and consequently the ICU, hence the ANN with a database composed of thermohygrometric variables associated with the properties surface was able to estimate the heat island effect for the year 2021, corroborating studies of climate change in cities with tropical climate. In view of this, the worst ICU scenarios are observed from the probable transformations, when LCZA is transformed into the other constructive typologies due to the loss of dense arboreal vegetation to the detriment of the construction of buildings and paved surfaces, being up to 2.25°C in winter, up to 1.80°C in spring and up to 0.95°C in summer. Estimated and equally relevant changes are seen when changing from low height typologies to high FVC and low H/W urban canyons (LCZ2 and 5) as well as to low FVC and high H/W urban canyons (LCZ 4), creating local heating up to 2.77°C in autumn, up to 1.88°C in winter, up to 1.37°C in spring and up to 1°C in summer.