Análise da formação e da transmissão do preço do leite pago ao produtor em Mato Grosso aplicando modelos de séries temporais

Abstract

Mato Grosso is currently the main agricultural state of Brazil and is the main agricultural frontier of the country. However, the reality of their productive structure is a mosaic of situations in which highly technified producers and others who have limitations of all kinds, from structural to lack of knowledge about the sector in which they operate, live together. The milk production sector is representative in this sense. Historically associated with small farmers, it is present in almost all municipalities of Mato Grosso and synthesizes the productive challenges facing the state. In this paper, he gathered milk production and price data, beef cattle prices and production inputs such as corn, as well as data from other states and national average. Time series models were used to conduct studies that could identify the differences between seasonality of production and price in Mato Grosso, and seven other states that make up the national average. The results indicate that the seasonality of production is higher in Mato Grosso than in Brazil 43.3% and 20% respectively. Still by analyzing the price received by the producers in the different regions based on information from the price series captured by Imea, it was verified that there is no asymmetric transmission of prices, and that these are formed regionally, with the Norte region being the further explained the price formation of the other regions. And the Centro-Sul region to which it precedes, that is, the region that most explains the variation of prices when they are exposed to exogenous shocks. Another finding of this work was the influence of the price cycles of beef cattle on milk production in the state. The price of calf was the main variable to explain the change in milk production in Mato Grosso, accounting for 42.5% while in Brazil 61% of production was explained by the change in milk price after 12 months, which in the state was 15%. Thus, the seasonal character of milk production, which constitutes an important limitation for the industries and the great influence of beef cattle on dairy production, are relevant factors in the decision making about technical assistance policies or even promotion. sector development. Notwithstanding the implementation of Conseleite MT to consider the results that show no single price for the state and which regional issues are more relevant than purely supply and demand adjustments in price formation. Thus, the results and conclusions presented in this work can be used by milk chain agents for subsidies under discussion on state pricing policy and also provide information on policies for promotion and technical assistance aimed at state dairy farmers.