Dinâmica espacial e temporal da ocorrência de dengue no estado de Mato Grosso

Abstract

Dengue fever is transmitted by mosquitoes of Aedes genus. This vetor-borne disease is in constant territorial expansion due climatic, social and environmental factors, witch contribute to the proliferation of the vector. The state of Mato Grosso, located in the southern region of the Legal Amazon, has been experiencing intense urban growth since the 1970s and, since 1991, has been showing high rates of dengue incidence. However, there are no studies that access the transmission of dengue in the state. The purpose of this study was to analyze the distribution of dengue cases in the state of Mato Grosso, from 2008 to 2019, identifying the areas of high risk and the factors that influenced it. To evaluate the temporal trend and seasonality of dengue in the state of Mato Grosso, statistical joinpoint analyzes and the nonparametric Kruskal-Wallis test were used, respectively. The univariate Moran Global Index spatial statistic was used to test the spatial autocorrelation of dengue incidence in the state and the bivariate spatial statistic was used to assess the spatial autocorrelation between the incidence of dengue and the explanatory variables maximum, mean and minimum temperature, precipitation , deforestation, population density and municipal development index. The Local Moran Index (LISA) was used to identify areas with high risk of dengue transmission in Mato Grosso state. The results showed that during the study period there was a downward trend in the number of dengue cases, although there were three epidemic periods: in 2009-2010; 2012-2013; and 2015-2016, respectively, with a predominance of an increase in the number of cases in the months of greatest rainfall. There was a shift from high-risk areas for dengue in the South to the MiddleNorth region of the state, with expansion to municipalities located in the North, along BR-163, influenced by precipitation, deforestation and social factors. With these data, it will be possible to carry out strategic planning for the prevention and control of dengue in high-risk municipalities and their neighbors, in order to reduce the incidence rate in the region.