Modelagem preditiva para análise dos efeitos da reconfiguração da morfologia urbana

Abstract

The accelerated urbanization has led to intense modifications in the morphology of urban areas, altering the thermal balance and influencing the dynamics of the local climate with direct effects on thermal comfort. The aim of this study was to analyze the impacts of urban morphological reconfiguration in an expansion area in the municipality of Cuiabá-MT. For this purpose, predictive modeling and three-dimensional simulations were conducted using the ENVI-met software, associated with the analysis of thermal comfort through the Predicted Mean Vote (Predicted Mean Vote - PMV) index for different times using the BIO-met module, and during rainy and dry periods, in four distinct scenarios in an urban expansion area of Cuiabá-MT: real scenario, scenario with vegetation replaced by parking area, single-family residential scenario, and multi-family residential scenario. The accuracy of the simulation performance was examined using root mean square error (RMSE), determination (R²) and correlation (r) coefficients, as well as t-tests and Mann-Whitney tests. The models were statistically accurate, with no statistically significant differences. The results showed that the replacement of vegetation with impermeable surfaces increased the thermal load of the environment, intensifying the feeling of discomfort in both periods, with PMV values at 2 PM being extremely uncomfortable, exceeding the recommended limits (above +3), explained by high local temperatures and a possible limitation of the BIO-met program for tropical climates. Thus, in the face of increasing adverse events such as extreme heat waves, studies on land use and occupation are essential to support planning strategies that consider the impacts of different building typologies on the local microclimate, focusing on the health and well-being of pedestrians. It is essential to promote the conservation and expansion of green areas, as well as the creation of shade corridors on streets and public areas, aiming to increase the resilience and habitability of cities in the face of climate change, especially for tropical climate cities.