O mercado de boi gordo em Mato Grosso : uma análise da integração e da transmissão de preços

Abstract

The present study uses the time series model to analyze the cattle market in the state of Mato Grosso. The first part of this study investigates whether there is a relationship between average prices of cattle in all macro-regions of Mato Grosso. That is, if these macro-regions are spatially integrated, taking as reference the period from January 2008 to June 2016. The second part of the study deals with the vertical transmission of prices between the producer level, the wholesale level and the retail level of the marketing chain of the cattle in the municipality of Cuiabá. Analyzing the data through the econometric model adopted, it is sought to determine if the Law of One Price (LoP) is applicable to the Mato Grosso's cattle market, as well as to identify how is the process of vertical transmission of prices throughout the chain of this product in the city of Cuiabá. The data used were obtained from the Instituto Mato-grossense de Economia Agropecuária (IMEA). The values used in the study refer to the daily average prices of beef cattle in the seven macro-regions of Mato Grosso according to the IMEA classification: North, Northwest, Northeast, Mid-North, West, South and Southeast. For this purpose, the Q statistic of Ljung and Box (1978), the Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test (1981) was used to analyze the existence of unit root, Granger causality, the decomposition of the variance of the prediction errors and the analysis of the error correction model (VEC), as well as the impulse-response function to analyze the relationship between the marketing links. The results obtained corroborate the applicability of the LOP to the beef cattle market in Mato Grosso. In the case of the city of Cuiabá, the results show that the shocks in the average prices paid to the producer affect proportionally more the wholesale sector than the retail sector, despite the fact that the positive effect generated is transitory. A shock over the average wholesale price generates an almost insignificant effect on the price paid to the producer, while at the retail level there is a positive effect of greater magnitude. This is in line with expectations, as cost increases are likely to be passed along the chain. In the case of a shock on the average retail price, it is noted that there is almost no effect on the price to the producer as well as on the average wholesale price. The market takes two months to absorb this type of shock. The effects on the producer and the wholesale are symmetrical in terms of speed but asymmetric in terms of magnitude. These results show that the retail sector is the price taker of the other links in the marketing chain.