Homicídios em homens jovens no estado de Mato Grosso - Brasil, 1996 a 2022 : tendência e projeção

Abstract

Introduction: The maximum expression of violence is homicide. Taking someone else's life is seen as a matter of public health given the high mortality and morbidity rates, especially among the young male population. Brazil is responsible for 10% of world homicides, which places the country in first place in absolute number of violent deaths. Among young men (15-29 years) homicides are the leading cause of death. Objective: Analyze the trend and project homicide rates in young men in the state of Mato Grosso, from 1996 to 2022. Methods: This is an ecological, exploratory study of the temporal trend of homicide mortality rates in young men. (15 to 29 years) in the state of Mato Grosso, health regions and macroregions, from 1996 to 2022. Secondary data from the Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System (DATASUS) were used. Crude homicide rates were calculated and standardized by age for each year and place and submitted to descriptive analysis. Trend analysis was performed using generalized linear regression by the Prais-Winsten method and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) models. The selection of the most appropriate model to predict future values was performed using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). To analyze the temporal evolution of mortality, Stata version 12.0 software was used. Results: Seven (43.8%) of the sixteen health regions showed increasing temporal trend of homicide rates in young men and, as well as the state, the remaining (56.2%) had a stable trend. Regarding the age group, there was a growing temporal trend of homicides in young men, with maintenance of high rates for the male population from 15 to 19 years. The forecast for the 2018-2022 period indicated an increase in homicide rates among young men, where among adolescents the rates tend to be lower but with higher growth over the years. Standardized homicide rates have revealed that the North Central macroregion leads the way in gun mortality for most years. There was a significant and increasing trend in the firearm homicide rate for the North, West, South macroregions and the state of Mato Grosso. Mortality of young men by firearms was high, especially in the most urbanized macroregions, with agrarian conflicts and border region. Conclusions: This study indicated an increasing trend of male homicides of young people in Mato Grosso, especially adolescents and firearms. The contribution of this research is evidenced in giving visibility to the homicides of young men, offering important subsidies for the planning of public policies directed to the collective health.