Conectividade da paisagem e mudanças climáticas : priorização de áreas e seleção de espécies para restauração ecológica

Abstract

This study sought to integrate landscape connectivity metrics and potential distribution models of species used in ecological restoration, aiming at prioritizing areas for ecological restoration in the Xingu Basin, in Mato Grosso, and areas of environmental suitability for species in the face of climate change. Landscape connectivity was estimated with the Integral Connectivity Index (IIC) available in the Conefor 2.6 software and based on thematic maps from MapBiomas. For the analyses of environmental suitability of species, 19 bioclimatic variables, three topographic variables, six soil variables, eight modeling algorithms and the list of species from the Xingu Seed Network used for ecological restoration were used. The IIC allowed the identification of priority areas for ecological restoration, contributing to in situ ecological restoration actions. Furthermore, the results demonstrated that the species used for ecological restoration by the Xingu Seed Network will have no area or will have their area of environmental suitability reduced in the face of climate change by 2070.